China - Afghanistan Railway

Cat: HIS
Pub: 2025
#2517b

China Project Hub (2015)

25708u

John Mearsheimer and Sergei Karganove debate on Ukraine

ミアスハイマー＆カルガノフ: ウクライナ問題討論

0. Introduction:
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>Top 0. Introduction:

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8XaQnKlj6g
• The China-Afghanistan railway is scheduled to open in 2026. It will bypass the Straits of Malacca and transport minerals to the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in 10 hours.

• 一帯一路の一貫として、中国・アフガニスタン鉄道2026開通予定。マラッカ海峡迂回し、10時間以内に、鉱物を新疆ウイグル自治区に輸送。

1. 一带一路 Yídài yílù; The Belt & Road Initiatrive (BRI)

>Top 1. China - Afganistan Railway:

1. A transformative*2 chapter in regional connectivity is unfolding - construction of the long-anticipated China-Afghanistan railway is officially scheduled to begin in 2026. Once operational, this high-speed trade route will connect Afghanistan's rich mineral resources direct to China's Xīnjiāng region in just ten hours -bypassing maritime choke points like the Strait of Malacca entirely and slashing transport costs by up to 40%.
2. Welcome to today's video. If you're new hear or haven't subscribed yet, make sure to click that button so you never miss a key update on global affairs.
3. While the US spent two decades and over 2 trillion dollars tying - and ultimately failing - to stabilize Afghanistan through military force, China has taken a sharply different route: diplomacy and infrastructure. By facilitating peace talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan, China not only helped mend years of regional hostility but also secured development rights to the massive Aynak copper mine, a deposit estimated to be worth over 100 billion dollars. This diplomatic breakthrough laid the groundwork for the China-Afghanistan railway, a game-changing project that is more than just a logistics corridor - it's a geopolitical pivot. Once trains begin rolling, they'll deliver copper ore from the Aynak site, just 40 km southeast of Kabul, directly to Chinese industries, saving weeks over traditional maritime shipping routes.
4. To understand how we got here, it's important to recognize how rare this reconciliation between Afghanistan and Pakistan is. Despite being neighbors, the two nations have long been plagued*3 by mutual distrust and border skirmishes*4, obstructing regional initiatives -especially the China-Pakinstan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a cornerstone of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). From 2018 to 2023, over 200 security incidents targeted CPEC infrastructure and personnel, raising the stakes for any major investment in the region. But China's persistent diplomatic efforts are beginning to yield results. For the first time in years, Afghan and Pakistani officials are engaging constructively, appointing ambassadors and committing to border cooperation. This development is especially remarkable when you consider that the US, with all its military might, failed to achieve similar outcomes over 20 years. China's approach -leveraging shared economic interests rather than military force -has proven more effective and more sustainable.
5. Afghanistan's economic needs are urgent an undeniable. As one of the world's least developed nations, the country stands to benefit tremendously form foreign infrastructure investments. Pakistan, too, needs a stable regional environment to spur its own development. China's Belt and Road vision offers both countries a path forward - using commerce to build trust, infrastructure to foster growth, and trade to undercut geopolitical tension. Beyond Afghanistan, the implications of the railway are profound. Traditionally, global trade has relied on maritime dominance. Control of key sea lanes like the Straight of Malacca and the Suez Canal has long equated*7 to control over global commerce - a reality the US Navy had leveraged to maintain geopolitical superiority. But that paradigm is shifting.
6. Land-based trade is gaining momentum, especially across the vast Eurasian continent. Since the launch of the first China-Europe freight train in 2011, over 77,000 trains have crossed the continent, transporting more than 7 million TEUs*9 of cargo. These trains cut delivery times by more than 60% compared to sea freight. Though not yet as cheap as maritime shipping, land routes are far more reliable and significantly less expensive than air freight. And unlike maritime channels, which can be blocked by natural disasters or political instability - think Suez Canal obstructions or tensions in the Straight of Hormuz - land routes are less vulnerable, as long as regional cooperation holds. This shift isn't just about logistics. It's about reshaping the energy and security architecture of Asia.
7. China, now the word's largest energy consumer since overtaking the US in 2010, remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil - roughly 80% of which travels through the Malacca Strait. This dependence on vulnerable sea lanes has long been recognized as a strategic weakness. The proposed railway, however, offers an alternative. It opens a direct land corridor from Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asia into western China. Iran, which holds the world's third-largest proven oil reserves (approximately 18.67 billion tons), is poised to be a critical player in this new overland supply chain. With strong diplomatic ties between China, Iran, and Pakistan, the development of such a corridor is increasingly feasible - and likely.
8. Furthermore, this overland strategy creates a powerful trade loop. While China imports vital resources from the Middle East and Central Asia, it exports manufactured goods to the same regions. Many of these resource-rich nations lack industrial capacity and look to China for affordable, high-quality products. This mutual dependency lays the foundation for deeper long-term partnerships. The Aynak copper mine exemplifies this potential. Discovered to contain over 11.3 million tons of copper reserves, it is among the largest untapped deposits in the world. In 2008, a consortium led by China Metallurgical Group and Jungxi Copper secured rights to develop the site with a proposed 4.2 billion dollars investment. However, progress stalled for years due to regime changes and security instability.
9. 17 years later, the groundwork*11 is finally being laid for full-scale development. Once operations begin, the mine is expected to generate approximately 50,000 direct jobs, with many more indirectly created. to put the scale in perspective: in 2023, Afghanistan's GDP was just over 20 billion dollars. The Aynak mine alone is worth nearly five times that amount. From a logistics perspective, the impact is equally significant. Rail transport from Aynak to Kashmir (喀什 Kāshí) in China will take just 10 hours -15 days faster than maritime shipping -and at 40% lower cost. For commodities like copper, which underpin*12 much of the global industrial supply chain, these savings could dramatically enhance efficiency and profit margins.
10. But this railway is about far more than copper. It represents China's broader strategy to insulate itself from US maritime pressure. In the event of geopolitical crisis, sea routes like the Malacca Strait could be blocked - putting China's energy imports and trade in jeopardy. With land-based alternatives now becoming viable, China is methodically removing that leverage from Washington's arsenal*14. The reaction from the US has been swift. Just one day after the Afghan-Pakistani peace agreement was announced, the White House froze 3.5 billion dollars in Afghan central banks assets held overseas. Yet this move, while symbolic, is unlikely to derail the larger momentum. Compared to the 100 billion dollars value of the Aynak mine, Washington's financial leverage is minimal. Moreover, China possesses the capital, technology, and long-term strategic patience to see such project through, even without access to Western financial systems.
11. Looking ahead, the China-Afghanistan railway could spark a domino effect across Central Asia. Countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and even Russia may be incéntivized to deepen overland trade cooperation with China. What's emerging is a vast integrate Eurasian transport and trade network - with China at its core. As the Belt and Road Initiative continues to expand, the global economic map is being redrawn. China is no longer just a manufacturing powerhouse - it is becoming a central hub in a new model of globalization, one powered by rails, roads, and pipelines rather than aircraft carriers and destroyers. That's it for today's episode. If you found this analysis valuable, don't forget to subscribe and turn on notifications - we'll be diving deeper into these stories every week. See you in the next one.

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3. plague: 災難, 不幸
   
   
   
   
   
   
4. sirmish: 小競り合い, 小衝突
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7. equate: 同一視する
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11. groundwork: 基礎工事
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
12. underpin: 下から支える
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14. arsenal: 兵器(庫)
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>Top 2. Tajikistan Returns Land to China: (China Project Hub, 2025)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWOET8BgBLE

1. Today's story takes us to one of the world's most remote and misunderstood regions: the Pamir Plateau - a place once considered lost to history, but now at the heart of a 21st century geopolitical transformation. Few expected that when this land was peacefully returned to China, it would reveal a treasure trove of strategic resources, instantly turning this high-altitude frontier into a hotbed*4 of global attention. Let's unravel*5 this fascination story - one that spans centuries of imperial conflict, cold diplomacy, and quiet triumph.
2. The Pamir plateau, often referred to as the "Roof of the World," sits at the intersection of Central and South Asia, where modern-day China, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan converge. Towering above 4,000m, the region has long been isolated by its unforgiving terrain - permafrost, snow-laden ridgelines, and scarce infrastructure made it one of the least accessible areas on Earth. Yet historically, this land was never a void. It served as a vital artery*6 of the ancient Silk Road and a meeting point for civilizations from the East and West. During the Western Han*7 dynasty, the legendary envoy Zhāng Qiān (张骞 175-114BC) laid the foundation for Sino-Central Asian ties by traveling through this area. In the Tang dynasty, China further extended its administrative presence by establishing the Ānxī (安西) Protectorate to safeguard trade and influence across the region.
3. Despite its strategic and symbolic significance, the Pamirs became collateral damage during the great power rivalries of the 19C. In 1864, weakened by internal decline and external pressure, the Qīng Empire signed the Treaty of Tarbagatai with Tsarist Russia, ceding over 440,000 sq.km of northwestern territory. while the Pamirs remained nominally Chinese, the Russians began asserting control. By 1882, Russian forces had occupied over 1,100 sq.km in the eastern Pamirs. China's response? A dotted line of a map and diplomatic silence - helpless in the face of growing imperialist aggression. For decades, the region disappeared from active Chinese governance. Under Soviet control, the area was militarized, yet underdeveloped. When Tajikistan became independent in 1991, it inherited these neglected borderlands, struggling with political instability, economic hardship, and limited capacity to govern such rugged terrain.
4. But China never forgot. Archived in China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs were yellowed maps, imperial edicts*11, and Qing military logs - concrete records indicating historical jurisdiction*13 over the Pamirs. Even a satellite analysis was conducted to align historical claims with modern geography. China's approach wasn't to contest the border militarily, but slowly build a watertight*14 legal and diplomatic case, while extending a hand of cooperation. By 2011, after nearly two decades of low-profile*16 negotiations, China and Tajikistan signed a border agreement. Tajikistan formally acknowledged China's claim to 1,158 sq.km*17 of the eastern Parmirs. Crucially, this wasn't forced handover*18. China refrained from threats or coercion*19. Instead, the return was secured through diplomacy, documentation, and promises of shared development. And that's where the real surprise began.
5. Soon after the agreement was signed, Chinese geological teams were dispatched to the plateau. In 2018, a group of frostbitten*20 surveyors carrying drilling rigs into the highlands expected little more than barren rock. What they found was anything but. At a depth of 300m, exploratory drills struck lithium. Not just trace amounts, but an extensive vein with industrial scale reserves. Lithium, the lifeblood of modern batteries, is the key component in electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and mobile devices. With global demand soaring due to the green transition. this discovery couldn't have been more perfectly timed*22.
6. But lithium was just the beginning. The region was soon found to harbor rare earth elements - critical for producing advanced electronics, military radar systems, and fiber-optic cables. Among the rarest was promethium-based (Pm) alloys, used in aerospace and 5G infrastructure. Then came the gold: over 300,000 tons*24 in in preliminary estimates, valued at more than 1.2 trillion yuan*26 based on current prices. News of the discoveries reverberated*27 globally. The Wall Street Journal called it a "geoeconomic windfall*28."　Western analysts remarked that China had acquired - through diplomacy - what many countries would have fought wars over. In Tajikistan, public opinion was mixed. Some citizens expressed regret, saying they would never have agreed to return the land if they had known about the resources beneath it.
7. However, China had anticipated such sentiment. The agreement included a clause granting Tajikistan 3% of the annual mining profits. Additionally, China undertook major infrastructure projects, including a 2,100 km road connecting Dushanbe (Душанбе)*29 to the Pamir region. Travel time was reduced by three days, saving the Tajik economy billions annually in freight and logistics costs. But more than just roadways and royalties, China built hospitals, schools, and hydropower plants across eastern Tajikistan - quietly winning hearts and minds through action rather than slogans.
8. The true power of this strategy lies in contrast. A century ago, China was forced to watch as foreign powers carved up its territory. Today, through archival*32 persistence, patient diplomacy, and a long-term development strategy, it has reclaimed what was once lost - without bloodshed, without headlines*33. The transformation is profound. Lithium from Pamir now feeds China's booming battery factories in Qīnghǎi (青海)*34. Rare earths support tech hubs in Sìchuān (四川). gold reserves underpin industrial expansion. And perhaps most symbolically, former Qing military outposts*36 - destroyed by Russian forces in 19C - have been rebuilt as patriotic education sites.
9. In 2025, the region welcomed its first solar-power drone station and charging grid, signaling a shift toward sustainable high-altitude development. Along the Belt and Road trade corridor, mining trucks now pass herds*37 of yaks beneath snowcapped peaks - an image as surreal*38 as it is symbolic.
10. Yet challenges persist. Climate change is rapidly reshaping the Pamir ecosystem. Rising temperatures have accelerated glacier melt, caused river levels to surge, and degraded vast swaths*39 of pastureland*41. Wildlife is losing habitat*42, and local communities are witnessing their ancestral lands change before their eyes. The fragile alpine ecology means environmental restoration is costly - around 500 yuan must be spent to restore every ton of disturbed earth. These issues underscore a critical truth: economic development in regions like the Pamirs must be paired with environmental stewardship*43.
11. China has begun piloting sustainable mining protocols here, deploying AI systems to monitor ecological impact and using green energy in remote operations. But more must be done. Occasionally, voices in Tajikistan question whether the agreement signed by previous governments remains valid. Yet those voices tend to fade when weighed*44 against the tangible benefits China continues to deliver - medical aid, energy access, and infrastructure that connects isolated communities to the rest of the country. The real takeaway*46? China's approach in the Pamirs exemplifies a broader principle: great powers don't always need to make noise to make an impact. Instead of boasting about reclaimed lands, China quietly integrates them - turning neglected highlands into energy hubs, trade corridors, and environmental testing grounds.
12. Today, the Pamirs aren't just a symbol of restored sovereignty. They are proof of what patient diplomacy, economic cooperation, and historical awareness can achieve in a world often ruled by short-term calculation. Once considered a forgotten corner of the empire, the Pamirs now anchor a new era of regional connectivity. As China and Central Asia deepen integration through the Belt and Road Initiative, these lands - once lost and overlooked - have become bridges to Europe, the Middle East, and beyond. And that's the quiet power of modern China: not just reclaiming history, but reshaping the future.
13. Thanks for watching. If you found today's story as compelling*47 as we did, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe. We'll see you next time.

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4. hotbed: 温床
   
   
5. unrvel: 糸をほどく
   
   
   
6. artery: 動脈, 幹線道路
7. Western Han: 206BC-23AD =前漢, 都は长安
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14. watertight: 隙のない
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16. low-profile: 目立たない
17. 東京123区面積: 622 sq.km
18. handover: 移譲
19. coeercion: 強制
20. frostbitten: 凍傷にかかった
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22. time: (v) 時を選ぶ; The decision was well times. タイミングが良い
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24. 佐渡金山採掘金量: 78t
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26. 中国GDP: D17.8兆(121兆元) , 日本D4.2兆
27. reverberate: 反響する
28. windfall: 棚ぼた
29. Dushanbe: Tajikistan首都
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32. archival: 古文書の
33. headline: 大見出し
34. BYD青海電池工場: 世界最大2018, 24GWh/y (Tesla上海工場 40GWh/y)
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36. outpost: 前哨部隊
    
    
    
    
    
    
37. herd: 群れ
38. surreal: 奇想天外
39. swath: 刈り跡
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42. habitat: 生息環境
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
43. stewardship: 執事職
    
    
    
44. weigh: 評価, 比較検討する
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47. compelling: 説得力のある

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Comment

• Disputes over territories and interests between major powers, most of which often lead to war, and which continue in the world even today.
• Such news has hardly been reported that the demarcation of borders in the Pamir Plateau on the roof of the world was peacefully completed reflecting history.
• It is surprising that the name of Zhāng Qiān in 100BC suddenly appeared in the limelight, who would be also surprised to find that underground resources essential to modern science (Li, rare earth elements, gold) were discovered underground of the land where he travelled and played an active role. This could be a good fortune as a kind of bonus due to peace negotiations.
• Furthermore, this land has brought new challenges, such as how to maintain harmony with the fragile natural environment at ultra high altitude areas, remaining still a topic of endless tasks.
• In addition, it is also announced that the railway between neighboring Afghanistan and China was recently opened, connecting exhausted Afghanistan by long-continued war, passing Tajikistan bound for China.
• One can only hope that this story will bring further good result stories of peace dividend, resounding good melody on the roof of the world.

• 特に大国による領土・権益を巡る争い、そのほとんどは戦争に至ることが多い争いが、現在も世界で絶えない。
• この世界の屋根・パミール高原で、歴史を反映した国境の確定が平和裏に完了したことは、ほとんど報道されてこなかった。
• 歴史に登場する張騫の名前も再び脚光を浴びたことにも驚いた。そし現代科学にとって必須の地下資源(Li, 希土類, 金)がその平和裏に返還された土地の地下から発見されたことは、張騫もさぞびっくりしたであろう。まさに平和交渉の幸運と言えよう。
• さらにこの土地は、超高地における自然環境との調和という新たな課題を生じており、話題は尽きない。
• そしてさらにまた戦乱で疲弊した隣国アフガニスタンからこのタジキスタンを経由して中国までの鉄道が開始したニュースが伝えられた。
• この物語によって、世界の屋根の上での平和の配当が高らかに響き渡る事例としてさらに幸運をもたらすことを願わざるを得ない。